Louis winter forecast; what's in store?

Oct 22, 2017, 01:26

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a warmer and drier winter while the northern half of the country is more likely to see a cooler, wetter and snowier winter.

They say it's because of a 55 to 65 percent chance for a "La Nina" weather pattern.

∙ Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will release an updated seasonal forecast throughout the winter.

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While that weather phenomenon is unlikely to have a major effect on New England, Halpert still advised people across the country to get ready for the coming season. The 2015-2016 winter was record warm, about 4.55 degrees hotter than normal.

Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, extending from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

NOAA does not explicitly forecast snowfall during long range forecasts, instead simply predicting precipitation which may fall as rain, snow, or wintry mix.

NOAA's winter outlook doesn't forecast snow or specific storms, but La Ninas tend to favor more storms coming from the west and north than from the Gulf of Mexico or the East Coast, he said.

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Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern United States.

∙ Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental USA, along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

"Our models are kind of waffling in that area", Halpert said.

Pastelok expects Arctic blasts to freeze the northern Plains this winter with temperatures sinking to subzero levels on a regular basis.

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